Did the investment actually reduce the risk?
The closing loop on the lifecycle: every PR24 performance commitment, its live ODI exposure, and whether the spend delivered the risk-reduction the model said it would.
Performance commitments & ODI exposure
Sort by year-end ODI forecast, year-to-date earned/lost or status. Selecting a commitment opens its trajectory chart on the right.
Performance commitments vs ODI exposure
Storm overflow spill reduction
Waste Management · −32% vs baseline · £1.5 bn allowance (inc. £410M additional)
£0.31M per percentage point above target
Scarborough Bay spill cluster pushed Q2 above trajectory; year-end forecast assumes Marine Drive PS recovery in Q3.
Delivered vs modelled risk reduction
The variance column is the closing-loop question: every pound spent should buy a known number of risk-reduction units. Where the bars diverge, the next planning cycle has to adjust.
Did the spend buy the risk reduction we promised?
Each row is an AMP8 investment programme. Modelled = the risk-reduction units the FD assumed for the spend; delivered = what the asset graph says we actually got.
- Storm overflow reductionStorm overflow · £184M YTD of £1.50bn allowance-16 pts vs modelModelled38Delivered22
16-point shortfall concentrated in coastal catchments — Scarborough drives 40% of the gap.
- Nutrient removal at WwTWNutrients · £156M YTD of £1.60bn allowance-12 pts vs modelModelled30Delivered18
Tertiary upgrades commissioning later than planned at three sensitive WwTWs.
- Continuous river monitoringMonitoring · £22M YTD of £0.10bn allowance+3 pts vs modelModelled55Delivered58
On plan. CIM coverage already delivering Scarborough Bay evidence on demand.
- Sewer structural rehabilitationMains & network · £132M YTD of £1.10bn allowance-14 pts vs modelModelled35Delivered21
Victorian interceptor backlog larger than DWMP assumed; CCTV programme accelerated.
- Clean water network resilienceMains & network · £148M YTD of £1.20bn allowance+5 pts vs modelModelled42Delivered47
Pressure management outperforming model — early-AMP reward trajectory on leakage.
- Treatment works upliftTreatment · £210M YTD of £1.80bn allowance-4 pts vs modelModelled40Delivered36
Marginal underperformance — dosing-control retrofit at two WTWs pending.
- Catchment & climate resilienceResilience · £96M YTD of £1.00bn allowance-6 pts vs modelModelled25Delivered19
SuDS rollout on plan; distributed storage trials yet to show network benefit.
Quarterly executive read-out → exportable PDF would land here (mocked). Continual Improvement feeds the variance back into Planning and Risk.