Risk against baseline

See risk move when new evidence lands.

The WINEP/DWMP plan was built on inspection cycles and engineering judgement. EDM spills, CIM excursions and acoustic signals have arrived since — the surface shifts, and the plan no longer points at the right assets.

Baseline £-at-risk
£54.3 M
Post-evidence £-at-risk
£116.2 M
Movement
+£61.9 M
Assets moved up >5pts
6
Risk score
R = 0.35 · Safety + 0.4 · Performance · P(failure) + 0.25 · (1 / TTNC)

Safety and performance are 0–100. P(failure) is the modelled annual probability. TTNC is time-to-non-compliance in days, normalised so 14 days = 100. Bubble size on the surface reflects total R; rows in the table show £M exposure.

Risk surface

Probability of failure on the x-axis, consequence in £M on the y-axis. Bubble size is the weighted risk score. Toggle baseline vs new evidence to watch the cluster shift.

Risk surface

Probability of failure × consequence

Bubble size = total risk score · click to inspect
Act now
Monitor consequence
Prevent failure
Watch
Low P(failure)x — Probability of failure → High
Consequence (£M)
Top 8 critical · new evidence

Where the £-at-risk concentrates

#AssetPfTTNC£M riskScoreΔ
1
North Bay CSO
CSO
78%18d£24.078.3+50.8
2
Marine Drive PS
Pump
55%90d£16.046.2+22.4
3
South Bay CSO
CSO
45%64d£11.039.8+17.0
4
North interceptor trunk
TrunkSewer
48%220d£18.039.6+12.5
5
Scarborough WwTW
WwTW
42%142d£28.037.3+10.1
6
Cornelian Bay CSO
CSO
32%190d£7.028.5+8.5
7
Long sea outfall
Outfall
10%£4.021.7-2.0
8
Falsgrave PS
Pump
20%310d£3.018.7+3.5

Cascade view

What else fails — and which consents become exposed — if the selected asset fails. Edges are typed by Hydraulic / Process / Monitoring / Compliance dependency. Click any node to inspect probabilities, consequences and mapped evidence.

Cascade view

What fails downstream if this asset fails

Combined exposure
£56.6 M
Impact chain
North Bay CSO CIM · North Bay shore
Monitoring · CIM records ammonia excursion; consent breach evidence.
North Bay CSO Scarborough WwTW
Compliance · Bathing-water non-compliance attributed to catchment.
Scarborough WwTW Long sea outfall
Process · Treatment failure pushes consent breach to long sea outfall.
Scarborough WwTW CIM · South Bay shore
Compliance · Effluent quality picked up downstream by CIM.