See risk move when new evidence lands.
The WINEP/DWMP plan was built on inspection cycles and engineering judgement. EDM spills, CIM excursions and acoustic signals have arrived since — the surface shifts, and the plan no longer points at the right assets.
Safety and performance are 0–100. P(failure) is the modelled annual probability. TTNC is time-to-non-compliance in days, normalised so 14 days = 100. Bubble size on the surface reflects total R; rows in the table show £M exposure.
Risk surface
Probability of failure on the x-axis, consequence in £M on the y-axis. Bubble size is the weighted risk score. Toggle baseline vs new evidence to watch the cluster shift.
Probability of failure × consequence
Where the £-at-risk concentrates
| # | Asset | Pf | TTNC | £M risk | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Bay CSO CSO | 78% | 18d | £24.0 | 78.3 | +50.8 |
| 2 | Marine Drive PS Pump | 55% | 90d | £16.0 | 46.2 | +22.4 |
| 3 | South Bay CSO CSO | 45% | 64d | £11.0 | 39.8 | +17.0 |
| 4 | North interceptor trunk TrunkSewer | 48% | 220d | £18.0 | 39.6 | +12.5 |
| 5 | Scarborough WwTW WwTW | 42% | 142d | £28.0 | 37.3 | +10.1 |
| 6 | Cornelian Bay CSO CSO | 32% | 190d | £7.0 | 28.5 | +8.5 |
| 7 | Long sea outfall Outfall | 10% | — | £4.0 | 21.7 | -2.0 |
| 8 | Falsgrave PS Pump | 20% | 310d | £3.0 | 18.7 | +3.5 |
Cascade view
What else fails — and which consents become exposed — if the selected asset fails. Edges are typed by Hydraulic / Process / Monitoring / Compliance dependency. Click any node to inspect probabilities, consequences and mapped evidence.